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Player

Nathan Church

STLCFBats LThrows LActive

Season 2026 pitches faced. Sequences are 2-, 3-, and 4-pitch windows. Count filters apply to 2-pitch type rows only. Location sequences use a 4-region plate map. Date windows stay on Arsenal and Hitting.

2-pitch windows

1,196

Chase%

49.3%

Whiff%

18.7%

xwOBA

0.284

Sequence Entropy

68

Sequence Lift

8.0%

Sequence Effectiveness

-0.019

Location sequence
Type plus a 4-region plate map (up-in, up-away, down-in, down-away). Pairs under 20 sequences are hidden. Count filters do not apply here.
Transition flow
Two-pitch sequences. Link width is how often the next type follows.
Four-seam FastballSinkerChangeupSliderCurveballSweeperCutterSplitterKnuckle CurveFastballUnknownFour-seam FastballChangeupSinkerSliderCurveballSweeperSplitterCutterKnuckle CurveFastballUnknownForkball
Transition lift
P(next | first) minus the unconditional next-pitch mix. Positive means that follow-up is used more than usual after the first type.
Four-seam FastballSinkerChangeupSliderCurveballSweeperCutterSplitterKnuckle CurveFastballUnknownFour-seam FastballChangeupSinkerSliderCurveballSweeperSplitterCutterKnuckle CurveFastballUnknownForkball
Sequence tree from Four-seam Fastball
Branches are 2-pitch, then 3- and 4-pitch n-grams when the sample clears the display floor. Count filters hide 3/4-grams.
Four-seam FastballFour-seam FastballFour-seam FastballFour-seam FastballSliderCurveballChangeupSweeperSliderFour-seam FastballSliderChangeupFour-seam FastballChangeupCurveballFour-seam FastballSweeperSplitterFour-seam FastballCutterFour-seam FastballSinkerChangeupFour-seam FastballFour-seam FastballChangeupChangeupCurveballSinkerSliderFour-seam FastballSliderSliderSinkerCurveballFour-seam FastballCurveballChangeupFour-seam FastballCurveballSinkerChangeupSplitterFour-seam FastballSplitterSplitterFour-seam FastballSplitterSweeperSweeperFour-seam FastballCutterFour-seam FastballCurveballKnuckle Curve
Chase% after Four-seam Fastball
Last-pitch rates on the follow-up. Sample floors hide tiny pairs.
Pooled model after Four-seam Fastball
Observed mix versus a league-pooled next-pitch model given last pitch and count. Smoothing for rare contexts, not a sit or pick.